Scientists and magic numbers

Tim Lambert is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales and a standout example of why we don’t let academics with math majors run real life situations. He has invested a considerable amount of time defending the latest Lancet Democrat Party campaign advert that points to 650,000 deaths in Iraq.

Using such cutting post titles as Flypaper for the ennumerates and Stupid beyond belief he attacks all and sundry with mathmatical wizardry pointing out the methodolgy is well proven. What he doesn’t do is prove that the figures are anywhere near believable.

As there are too many lawyers fighting battles in court to save the souls of terrorist with clever legal procedures against a backdrop of slaughtered civilian victims then likewise there are now too many scientist quoting theory that has little to do with real life.

When I went to war, as different than when I read about it or studied the mathmatical formulae pertaining to same; my battalion lost 30 killed and 220 wounded giving a 7.33:1 ratio of deaths to wounded. Our sister battalion lost 50 to 281 resulting in a ratio of 5.6:1. Current stats from Iraq are running at 8:1, slightly higher, but all this low level maths suggests the Iraq hospitals have had 5.2 million wounded to deal with. The 650,000 also suggests that there has been 500 killed per day for every day of the war.

Sorry, I just don’t believe it. As Lambert argues, the methodology is proven but the extrapolation says what might be and it clearly isn’t.

It is worth reading the comments at Deltoid. It may help the casual reader to understand the politics behind the anti Bush theorists. Theories abound in a common sense vacuum.

US politics

On the US political front a new Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health study of Iraq has said 600,000 died post invasion and Barbara Striesand screams “shut the f***k up to a heckler complaining about a skit during her show that depicted Bush as a bumbling idiot. Maybe if she had stated at the start “This is a free Democrat Party election advertisement” then the heckler would’ve had nothing to complain about. She added “Shut up if you can’t take a joke!”

It’s not funny Barbara and you’re not a commedienne, or a believable political commentator for that matter, so just stick to singing.

The Iraq deaths, a statistical extrapolation from approximately 40,000 known dead has been gleefully reported by the Tehran Times and is so blatantly released in time for the 7 Nov elections that I’m surprised it gets any oxygen from the general media. Our ABC, of course, are all over it.

North Korea

A sampling of comments from the Australian article on North Korea’s nuclear test

Paul Duffy of Sydney

It is of concern that North Korea has nuclear weapons however there is still only one country that has been stupid enough to actually use nuclear weapons. It is greater concern to me that this country still has them.

I look forward to a day when no country has nuclear weapons.

john gilroy of Hurstville

If America can have Stealth Bombers and other WMD, why can’t other countries?

Marilyn

What hypocrites the west are. Let us never forget that great chunks of our country are permanently not fit for human habitation thanks to nuclear tests by the Brits in the 1950’s and ‘60s. The US used the weapons in 1945 on civilians and most of the wretched world cheered them on so much so that they got nuclear bombs themselves.

…Now let’s all stop our snivelling shall we. The dictator of Korea surely is no crazier than Bush.

Natasha of Brisbane

If everyone would just leave Kim Jong Il alone then he would have no reason to use his nuke on them. America has already tried to wipe his government off the planet and Japan controlled them before WW2 so if any country needs to protect itself it is NK.

LittleFaith

Expect nothing to happen, trade embargos will be broken with the help of Iran & Venezuela, North Korea’s new friends.

This is just another step towards the end of Western Empire after it’s demise from it, bungling in Iraq & Afghanistan. A special thanks to Mr Bush, a golden opportunity squandered.

Just watch the West slowly but surely sink into the graveyard of history’s empires.

And these people are enfranchised…they get to vote in adult elections.

It’s true the US is the only country to use nuclear weapons and the world breathed a sigh of relief when they did. My mother cried with relief as she could then expect her husband and brother to return home to start life again.

It is not true that “great chunks of our country are permanently not fit for human habitation”. I have stood at ground zero at the Monte Bellow Island test site and the ecology is booming but Marylin never let a fact slow down her ranting.

The problem is, of course, that there is potentially a very short time line between rogue states like Iran and North Korea having nuclear capability and terrorists having access to same. A very bright light over Tel Aviv, Washington, Canberra and London is not to be considered. The weird faction of the left must be aware that the US won’t deploy nukes unless it’s very existance is threatened and that is unlikely; whereas the rogue states, particularly Iran, look at the capability as a means to destroy the western civilization starting with Israel. They are in bed with the terrorists and they will use the capability if they can. They suffer no restraints.

None of this is news yet the extreme left so hate the US that they support anyone or anything that threatens her, not recognizing that the sames threats also can affect us.

Defence suicide and sick puppies

ALMOST 80 members of Australia’s defence force have killed themselves since 1997.

Oh my god, that’s awfull!

…opposition defence personnel spokesman Mark Bishop said the suicides were a result of defence culture. He said the suicide rate should force the Government into releasing the findings of a review of suicides.

No it shouldn’t. Reading on we find that the national rate is 1.6 of all deaths while the ADF is about half that. What’s his bloody point. He has taken a positive stat and reversed it and then pointed out why this stat is bad.

False premise springs to mind.

Sexual harrassment is a problem in the ADF! In a force the size of the ADF, with it’s tens of thousands of mainly young, fit men and woman there has been 107 cases of harrassment.

107! My God, I wonder how they get time to soldier. Well, actually, it’s only 88 substantiated cases but let’s not let exceptionally good figures ruin a good beat-up.

I’m neither making light of suicides nor sexual harrassment but could we have some balance. With both the listed figures being less than national averages the Senator could have just as well congratulated the ADF considering they are going through a difficult time at the moment with deployments all over the world as they fight terrorists and help stabalize our volatile island cousins.

This subject was reported three days ago but with other matters on my plate I hadn’t posted this piece. It is more relevant now as I have been a part of a ex-service network email distribution that made much of the Bishop report.

Of late I’ve been receiving emails extremely critical of the government from an ex member of my battalion who forwards emails from one Keith Tennant, an advocate of sorts for the ex service community.

I received one last night and was so moved as to answer in a theme that was critical of the political posturing contained within.

Amongst other things, I said;

Your links on your website detract from your purpose. Linking to activist sites, 9/11 conspiracy theorists and people like Margo Kingston clearly put you in that angry left wing area that sees no good in the country, no good in the military and definitely no good in our current fight against terrorism. My opinion, after reading your website, is that your political leanings detract from your mission. I’m not so much questioning your work but the more the angry political attacks…they can’t serve much purpose, they annoy me and I’m representative of your target.

I also took him to task for his email signature that says;

Veterans Will Continue To Advise Young Australians Not To Enlist In The Military Under Current Circumstances

There was some to’ing and fro’ing of emails that culminated in my being blackbanned from his email list.

Keith’s final email read;

You really are one sick puppy.

So, anybody who doesn’t fit your vision of the world and your profile of what is right and proper in Gillett’s mad head is a commo and rabble rouser. and …well, just about anything else I suppose. Of course you wouldn’t at all be one of those mad, war mongering right wingers who want to send everybody else’s kids and grandkids off to the latest War EXCEPT YOUR OWN, would you?

With lunatics like you around I marvel how we ever gained any respect at all and how Governments have ever listened to us.

You are blacklisted so don’t bother replying.

We are busy every day and have been for years fighting for the entitlements and rights of lunatics like you.

My advice to you is…….. Stick a tampon up your arse, light the wick and blow your brains out.

Which pretty well proves, in an ad hominem sort of way, the point of my earlier email.

Keith’s web page, The Aussie Digger is loaded with compassion for his fellow ex serviceman..you might like to drop in – I’m sure he would appreciate the extra traffic.

I received another answer to my email that raised points in a rational and calm manner and I replied in a similar vein. Some members of the veterans community are concerned about suicide and I am one of those.

I did some quick reading here and at the ABS on the subject of suicide, or more relevant to this issue, youth suicide and found the reports do not paint a rosy picture. Suicide has touched me personally and it can only be defined as ‘painful’ and raises reflections on ‘what could I have done?’ and the answer is all too often…nothing. Notwithstanding, I don’t think the government should necessarily be hauled over the coals for it.

I’m of the opinion that there needs to be a precondition of some physciatric disorder that prevails regardless of profession that can be triggered by, what to many others, is an inconsequential event.

So even though good works are being carried out by the military and society generally to alleviate the problem, it will always exist and we need to keep that in mind instead of mindlessly thowing accusations around.

Youth suicide is an across border problem. It is not a pretty picture but it does suggest that the Army doen’t stand alone with it’s suicide problem. No one carries press about suicide rates for wharfies, or airline pilots or rural workers as there are no such figures readily available and it’s a good way to bash the government or generals anyway.

UPDATE: I sent Keith an email linking to this post but he was right, I’m black banned and the email was rejected.

Joy as pedophile’s house burns

RESIDENTS of a tiny town in Victoria drank beer and cheered as they watched a convicted pedophile’s home engulfed in flames.

Most of the town’s 16 residents and at least two dozen spectators, watched the weatherboard home of Terrence Allan Ellis, 52, burn on Sunday, soon after an open day at a pioneer park.

Can’t say I blame them.  If I lived in the town I could see myself in attendance handing out cans of petrol to keep it going.

HMAS Sydney II

The Australian reports a survivor from the WW2 sinking of HMAS Sydney with the loss of all hands, has been located in a grave in Christmas Island.

Us Gilletts have a long association with HMAS Sydney. Two of my Great Uncles witnessed the first Sydney sinking the Emden in WW1, my father served on the second Sydney during WW2 and I returned home from my war (Vietnam) on the third Sydney. Just over a year ago I posted on my father’s time on the Sydney and his very lucky escape from a watery grave.

The ‘survivor’ exhumed at Christmas Island is not recent news. All investigations into the loss of the cruiser make note of a body found in a RAN life raft at Christmas Island but in the days before DNA identifciation little could be gained from the body. Without evidence, the RAN never listed the body as a sailor from the Sydney. Today it should be different and at least one family of the 645 lost can hopefully gain closure.

In this case, the family may have already been identified.

TED McGowan thought he was going to take it all in his stride. Then on Tuesday evening, the call came from Canberra; the final resting place of the unknown sailor had been unearthed on remote Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean.

John Perryman, the Royal Australian Navy historian, told him a forensic team was dusting off the skeletal remains of what may be the only physical link to Australia’s worst maritime disaster, the sinking of HMAS Sydney in November 1941 off Western Australia.

It may also turn out to be Mr McGowan’s brother Tom. “I feel exhausted,” Mr McGowan admitted yesterday. “I thought I would be able to handle it, but I was completely overcome.”

He has been the driving force behind the navy-led expedition to Christmas Island.

Two issues give Mr McGowan hope: a good set of teeth and a canvas shoe. When the body was examined by the island doctor on or about February 6, 1942, the corpse had a “perfect set of teeth”, as did Tom McGowan, a rarity in those days, and a shoe in the raft had “McCowan” or “McEwan” branded on it.

I hope it works out for you, Ted

Democrat’s wish list

Sex scandal threatens to sink Republicans

The Times reports

THE iron grip with which Republicans have held the House of Representatives for the past 12 years appears looser by the day with each fresh disclosure in the sex scandal involving Congressman Mark Foley and teenage boys working on Capitol Hill.

and quotes a pollster.

Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, predicted yesterday that the mid-terms are set to mirror those of 1994 when Democrats were swept from power by a wave of voter anger. He said: “I watched something similar happen in 1997 when Tony Blair’s Labour Party won its landslide against the Conservatives. The Republicans are sinking fast.”

I’m not convinced. When the story first broke I surfed around to get some idea of the severity of Foley’s crimes and stumbled across Tim Dunlops “Road to Surfdom Hysteria” I followed a link from this line “The emails are stomach-turning: you can see them here. I followed the link anticipating hot flushes, nausea and the development of a burning desire to kill the nearest paedophile. I was dissapointed. I read them again…well, they are creepy in a “send me a picture of yourself” and “what would you like for a birthday present” sort of way but the hysteria eluded me.

Tim Blair quotes Kerry Howley at Reason on Line who says

The Mark Foley pedophilia sex scandal lacks two things: pedophilia and sex.

I would hope that Foley’s’ public office’ days are over, he apparently has a track record of bothering Pages and comes across as creepy and immature, but if it reflects significantly on the Republican vote I’ll be surprised. The “holier than thou” hypocritical reaction of the Democrats lacks substance in the light of actualy having sex with an intern (Clinton); get drunk, crash a car into the water and leave the passenger to drown (Kennedy); and actually having sex with a 17 yr old male page (Studds) to name just a few transgressions.

Casualties so far;

Foley’s has resigned,

The chief of staff for Republican Congressman Tom Reynolds, Kirk Fordham, has resigned after questions were raised about his role in the handling of the congressional page scandal, and
Speaker of the House Hastert is under pressure but will most probably survive.

One for being stupid and weird and two for keeping the fact under wraps.

That should be it and if pundits are predictng the collapse of the Republican Party over one bad apple then they need some history lessons.  People in glass houses…….etc

Water, water, everywhere and not a drop to drink

In the Ancient Mariner, Samuel Taylor Coleridge says it all, although for different reasons but if we’re not carefull a poem from the 1800s could herald the problems of today. Water is a problem in Australia and always has been but it’s more of a management problem than one of supply.

Travel the country and you will have to agree with me. Uncapped bores at Coorabulka, open irrigation channels in the Murry Irrigation Area and uncountable megalitres of water emptying into the Cambridge Gulf in NW Australia. We just haven’t been serious and we have to change.

I have just had the Water Wise plumber, employed by the Brisbane City Council, at my home and that programme is a good start. All taps checked and given new washers when needed, All showers checked for restricted flow valves and replaced where necessary. Even taps over hand basins, the kitchen sink and in the laundry now have restricted flow. The main shower now flows at 9li per minute rather than 20 and the shower effect is the same.

The cost of his visit of about two hours…..$20.00.

I have ordered a water tank (3,000 li) and will water the garden with rain water through an irrigation system. I will order a cover for the pool to limit evapouration and likewise save on power with less filtering requirement during winter.

All of this, of course, is bandaide treatment to a much larger problem. My water rates will drop (quantatively..but watch the cost per litre rise) and if every house owner does something it will make a difference. We do have to water-discipline ourselves but the governments have to react to the infrastructure shortfalls.

I agree with Howard when he says the federal government should be controlling the nation’s water and the case of Queensland offers the best reaon for this. For almost a decade now, politicians in the sunshine state have been paying lip service to infrastructure while bragging about the thousands of southerners that are attracted to move to state every month. We grow and the infrastructure remains stagnant. There is no way known that a state government can express surprise when the state runs out of water.

It’s only now that Beatty is talking about building a dam and connecting the current dams with pipes to try and drought proof SE Queenlsand. Caught out unprepared but the everyone forgives him and doesn’t ask the hard questions like ” A new dam will take years to build and should have been started 5 years ago..why only bring it up now? The Greens hold too much sway with the Labour state governments with the result that the lung fish and obscure frogs take an unnatural place in the food chain above humans.

Madness.

If the waters rise the lung fish can move up or down stream and as they have already survived millennia of drought and flood I’m a little more circumspect about who’s who in the food chain than the Greenies.

Lyndsay Tanner writes;

EVERYWHERE you look, Australia has a problem with water. After decades of overuse and waste, water resources are under extreme pressure.

There’s no shortage of water, it’s just that most rain falls in the lightly populated north and we use water incredibly wastefully. Our population is only slightly larger than the Netherlands, but the volume of rain which falls on Australia is roughly 90 times greater.

The emerging water crisis should not come as a big surprise.

Which is all well and good but the only person castigated in his piece is Howard while the states have played a major part in the current crisis.

I’ve long been saying we need to address the problem with the scale of something like the Snowy River Scheme.

C.Y. O ‘Connor started building a pipe line from Perth to Kalgoorlie in 1898 and finished in 1902 covering a distance of some 400 hundred miles and opening up the famous ‘Golden Mile’. I continually read that the idea of piping from the very wet northern tropical zones the the South East populated zones is uneconomically viable. Well, we need to stop listening to the accountants and start listening to some visionaries If C.Y.O’Connor can do what he did in the 1880s what can we do with todays technology. We are building gas pipe lines all over the place in Queensland hundreds of kilometres long and are we not planning an East Timor- Darwin pipe line that will have to be some 800 kms long?

We have the technology and the motivation so all we are discussing is the cost. We have raised billions by levies to buy back guns and to save Ansett pilots from poverty. Could we not consider a long term levy or government bonds like war bonds to finance any such project?

I don’t know…just thinking!

Chinese try to buy Metal Storm

THE Chinese military allegedly offered an Australian weapons inventor more than $US100 million ($A134 million) to go to Beijing and work on one of the deadliest guns in the world, the Nine Network reports.

But Australian and US military forces are said to be determined to ensure the gun, known as Metal Storm and developed in Brisbane, does not end up in enemy hands.

Metal Storm technology is an electronically initiated, stacked projectile system that removes the mechanisms required to fire a conventional weapon. Effectively, the only parts that move in Metal Storm’s technology are the projectiles contained within the barrels. Multiple projectiles are stacked in a barrel. The technology allows each projectile to be fired sequentially from the barrel.

Metal Storm’s fully loaded barrel tubes are essentially serviceable weapons, without the traditional ammunition feed or ejection system, breech opening or any other moving parts. Metal Storm barrels can be effectively grouped in multiple configurations to meet a diversity of applications.

The technology is all about firing of projectiles or rounds being controlled by a computer chip rather than a comparatively slow human operating with a mechanical reload system. Both the human and mechanical aspects of automatic weapons that have been with us for more than a century, limit the speed of reload. As computers function in nanoseconds, or a billionth of a second, and the round is not being reloaded the cyclic rate of fire can be measured in milliseconds.

The barrels come prestacked and what Mike O’Dwyer has done is work out how to fire the forward round without sympatheic detonation of the following rounds .As each round is fired by electronic signal it arms the following round This was the breakthrough and in itself will change the face of war and policing.

Metal Storm cite a round leaving the barrel every three milliseconds or 333.333 rounds a second or 20,000 rounds per minute. These figures are for a single 40mm grenade launcher! The barrels themselves are then stacked so the weapon system consists of multiple barrels that can be fired in any sequence and any number of rounds per sequence. It’s all in the software.

This sort of weapon invalidates the human wave attacks that China used so well in Korea. No wonder they want to buy the technology!

The Metal Storm website makes interesting reading.

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